Translate

Showing posts with label Gerado Andrade. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gerado Andrade. Show all posts

Sunday, July 26, 2020

What's Up With The Baja California COVID Stats ? - The Ongoing Duel Between Zeta & Governor Jaime Bonilla - UPDATE 07/28/20: The Real Culprit In The Ongoing Non Accounting For The Hundred + Missing COVID Deaths In Tijuana...Or, UNDER MY THUMB (BAJO MI PULGAR)!!!

From the timeline of when Cantiflas was truly the people's comedian. He might be thinking, 'WTF, If I were a deputy...' 


Yes, believe it or don't, I'm going to give you some BAJA COVID stats....er, an assortment of Baja & Mexico COVID stats - which to put lightly has ignited feelings of general animosity. between the press (Zeta) and Governor Jaime Bonilla. I think we'll be seeing more of this in the States, particularly since Trump has moved the body counting from the CDC over to the White House. Quickly, Mike has improved, he persuaded me he could drive into town and pick up the best homemade chicken soup and chile rellenos and I caved in. He has to wear the neckbrace like Mrs. Tishell of Doc Martin..

Who doesn't adore Cantiflas? Although my feelings cooled a bit after I found out  how endeared he was to Gustavo Diaz Ordaz in the later years and didn't really speak out in 1968 or afterwards about 
 the Tlatelolco Massacre...but what a Master !

~~~~~

 ~ Here are stats from local KPBS (07/25/20:


Tijuana

Positive Cases Deaths
3,7841,058

Tijuana data source: Secretaría de Salud del Estado de Baja California.  


 ~ These are the latest stats from Zeta, dating back to Thursday (07/23) and should be updated tomorrow or Monday.  At that point, you can go back and forth comparing Zeta to KPBS, but I have a feeling when Zeta updates, KPBS will come up shy between 100-125 deaths in Tijuana.


Tijuana Rompe Record de Contagious de COVID_19, Reporta 153 en 24 Horas; BC Llega a Los 12, 528
por, Uriel Saucedo - With charts and maps


"Nor on the days when the curve was at its highest peak by COVID-19, the city of Tijuana reported as many new cases as the 153 that were registered between July 22 and 23, with which the municipality reached 3 thousand 664 infected patients accumulated by Coronavirus, remaining second below Mexicali than with 30 additional cases, it already has 6 thousand 594 cases. At the state level, Baja California already accounts for 12 thousand 528 accumulated cases and 2,444 deaths.


The Ensenada municipality reported an increase of 45 patients who tested positive for COVID-19, reaching a thousand 344 accumulated; in Tecate there were 23 new cases, adding 295 cases, and Playas de Rosarito with 10 more cases, adding 158 infected people. In San Quintín they increased to 274 infections with 8 more and the town of San Felipe reached 199 positive tests with five new ones.

Despite these increases, it was reported that the active cases had a decrease of one case, going from 512 to 511. The municipalities that increased these cases were Ensenada with 149, San Felipe town with 32 and Tecate with four active cases, while the Cities where there was a decrease in cases was Mexicali, which now has 258 cases, Tijuana has 48, San Quintín drops to 17 and Playas de Rosarito is maintained with three active patients.

Of the patients who have tested positive and are still alive, 155 in Mexicali have required hospitalization, in Tijuana there are 116 people admitted to a COVID hospital, and in the port of Ensenada there are 66. Tecate has hospitalized one person and Playas de Rosarito two, the three cases are treated at the General Hospital of Tijuana. In San Quintín there is a patient admitted to the General Hospital of Ensenada and there are two more from the town of San Felipe who are treated at the General de Mexicali.

Deaths increased in 20 cases, with 2,444 deaths accumulated since the start of the pandemic in the state. Tijuana was the municipality with the most deaths, 11 in total, which increased the number to 1,330; Mexicali continues to be the city with the most accumulated deaths, with six new deaths, reached 1,158 and in Ensenada it has 161 deaths, three being in the last hours.
In other cities in Baja California, the figure remained the same as the previous day, Tecate continues with 71 deaths, Playas de Rosarito has 13, San Quintín has 10 and the town of San Felipe has reported only one death. There are an average of 18 deaths per day and 5,836 recovered patients.
The occupation in hospitals of the Ministry of Health is 57 percent with 159 beds and 102 ventilators. The General Hospital of Tijuana, which has a 53 percent occupancy, is the hospital with the most available beds, 79 and 35 fans; the General of Mexicali is at 69 percent capacity with 40 beds and 32 free fans and the General of Ensenada, which has an occupation of 49 percent, has 40 beds and 35 fans.
In the case of the IMSS, the state reports an occupation of 67 percent with 206 beds and 37 free fans to be used. In Mexicali, the General Hospital of Zone 30 reported working at 80 percent and has 81 beds and 15 fans; in Regional 1 of Tijuana there is a 61 percent occupancy with 106 beds, but only five fans, while the General of Zone 8 in Ensenada is 64 percent with 13 beds and 13 fans (ventilators)."


UPDATE/edit 07/27/20:

I waited for the latest stats possible; here they are and it looks as though KPBS and Zeta  are in sync on the Tijuana numbers - so, as I've been watching these over the weeks, there could have been a slight delay between the reporting agencies and their sources. At any rate, everyone around here is holding their breath because even in a "semi-rojo" state, Tijuana (as well as Mexicali) is opening up. the most vulnerable businesses . Deja Vu anyone ? We noticed in Rosarito there was less mask wearing on the street, but Calimax is still intensely  practicing protocals (they almost give you a shower before you go in), and Cazuela de Mole as well as La Michocana the same. Apparently Ensenada is back in the swing of tourism (despite the warnings of COVID), with reports coming in that Hotel s had been rapidly filling up. Oh well, direct orders from the White House, Washington D.C. Donald Trump himself...shit, did I say that, sorry I meant Mexico City we presume.


BC: Rebasa Los 13 Mil Positivoas de COVID 19
por, Uriel Saucedo - 07/27/20 
With Maps & Charts on the Link.


"The number of COVID-19 cases in Baja California reached the accumulated 13 thousand 51 confirmed, as reported on the morning of Monday, July 27 by the Secretary of Health in the state, Alonso Pérez Rico, indicating that the municipality of Tijuana was where most cases were reported in the last hours, with 52 new cases. In addition, he shared that the death toll reached 2,538.

On the other hand, active cases registered a decrease of four cases, with 613 patients being cataloged as active. However, in four municipalities there was an increase in cases, such as in Tijuana where there are already 160, Ensenada reports 150, San Quintín has 24 and Tecate has 19. Mexicali dropped the cases to 230 and the town of San Felipe to 23; only the municipality of Playas de Rosarito remained with 7 active cases.

During the live broadcast of the governor, Jaime Bonilla Valdez, the head of the Ministry of Health, Pérez Rico, said that in the last 24 hours there was an increase of 123 patients with a positive result accumulating 13 thousand 51 cases in the state. Tijuana was the municipality that reflected the highest increase with 52 new cases, adding 3,865 positive cases, Ensenada had 37 new cases and now accumulates 1,226, but Mexicali remains in first place of accumulated cases with 6,769, although in recent hours only had 20 additional cases.

In Tecate there are already 316 COVID patients with 8 new ones, in San Quintín there are 298 with six patients who recently tested positive; while Playas de Rosarito remains in 166 confirmed cases and the town of San Felipe with 211.


Regarding deaths, he explained that there were 10; In Mexicali, four were reported, and now there are 1,197; in Tijuana, there were six, with a total of 1,770 deaths from COVID-19. Ensenada maintains 173 deaths, Tecate stayed with 73, Playas de Rosarito has 14, San Quintín with 10 deceased and San Felipe with a death by the lethal virus. On the recoveries, there are already 6,875 in the state.

The occupation reported by the Ministry of Health in the state was 53 percent with 175 beds and 108 fans. The General Hospital of Mexicali is where there are more patients attended, and they work at 63 percent occupancy with 48 beds and 38 free fans; In the General of Tijuana it was reported that they are 49 percent with availability of 86 beds and 32 fans, and the General of Ensenada with 47 percent of occupancy, have 41 beds and 38 fans (ventilators).

The IMSS registered 58 percent occupancy at the state level. Mexicali registered 49 percent occupation at the General Hospital of Zone 30, in Tijuana they are at 61 percent capacity at Regional Hospital number 1 and in Ensenada 69 percent occupancy was reported at the General Hospital of Zone 8."

~~~~~

Other than that, Mike is getting better day by day, Doc said to only take the muscle med every eight hours and pain killer only as needed, but not ready for physical therapy yet - we have to go up again tomorrow and Pet-Co is now giving bathers, will do that at the end of the week.  I wonder if Paris needs to wear a mask?

end edit.




~~~~~
 - You might want to check out Ensenada from this last week:

"Ensenada Donde Hay Mas Que Peligro" de Contagious: Perez Rico; Mueren 17.8 al Dia Por COVID-19 
por, Gerado Andrade  - Check Out the Charts & Images



"The official number of accumulated infections of COVID19 in Baja California, according to information provided by the Secretary of Health, Alfonso Pérez Rico, as of July 21, 2020 is that 12,132 cases are brought.

Although for the sixth consecutive day, it omitted to report positive cases by institution, including the Mexican Social Security Institute, whose hospitals detect the highest number of cases.
What Pérez Rico did say, based on their numbers, is that risk cases have increased in the municipalities of Mexicali and Ensenada.

Considering these numbers, provided in Governor Jaime Bonilla Valdez's presentation by his social network Facebook, in the last 24 hours, there was an increase of 114 positives in the State.

Although again the table of accumulated cases by institution was not presented, so the true number of infections cannot be specified.

The IMSS works on the SINOLAVE platform and had not migrated all its data to the Ministry of Health (SISVER) platform, the gap that was corrected with the table of accumulated cases by institution.


Since last July 14, Pérez Rico stopped presenting it during the morning messages from Governor Jaime Bonilla Valdez.


The Secretary of Health pointed out that regarding accumulated cases, all the municipalities in the State registered an increase again:

• Ensenada had an increase of 20 cases to total 1,266.

• Mexicali had an increase of 61 cases to reach 6,482.

• Tijuana increased 19 and reached 3,507 accumulated cases.

• Rosarito reported two cases to reach 147.

• Playas de Rosarito one case and reached 271 accumulated cases.

Regarding the town of San Quintín, it increased 1 case to add 265, and San Felipe increased 10 cases and reached 194.

The Secretary of Health noted that Baja California continues to be in third place in terms of deaths, since at the end of July 20 it reported 2,399, 25 more than the previous day, and the average number of deaths is 17.8 per day.

Hospital occupation in the Ministry of Health is 58.9%, in the IMSS 71.65%, in the ISSSTE, 92%; ISSSTECALI, 47.75% and Sedena 23.33%.

With the traffic light in Red by state instruction, in the presentation of this day the Secretary of Health added graphs where it is seen that Mexicali and Ensenada have reported a significant number of active cases of coronavirus.

 In the images you can see the indicators in practically the entire urban area, which is why they decided not to change the Traffic Light to Orange as announced by the Federal Government last Friday.
  
"Mexicali has a large number of active patients, the patients who may be giving strength to the pandemic, at this time in Mexicali opening activities is very dangerous. Ensenada, of all the municipalities we have, Ensenada is where there is the most danger, why, because the density of its population is relatively low with the number of cases they are having, ”Pérez Rico explained."


~~~~~


As of this last Friday, here is Mexico's COVID ranking worldwide:

 ~ From Zeta:

Mexico, Cuarto Lugar Mundial de Muertes Por COVID
por, Carlos Alvarez (07/24/20)



"According to the most recent count by the American Johns Hopkins University, Mexico is already in fourth place worldwide for the most deaths due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (which causes the disease COVID-19), and to 4,500 cases to occupy the third position in the statistics of fatalities led by the United States and Brazil"

Of the total of 624 thousand 665 deaths worldwide, the Mexican Republic had 41 thousand 190 deaths until July 23, only behind the United Kingdom, where 45 thousand 639 are counted; Brazil with 82 thousand 771; and the United States, with 143,446.


Regarding confirmed cases, Mexico remained in the seventh position in the world, with 362 thousand 274, only surpassed by Peru, South Africa, Russia, India, Brazil and the United States, a country that has 3 million 987 thousand 584 of the total of 15 million 284 1,136 reported globally.


The Our World in Data project , from the English University of Oxford, reported that during the last seven days, the average in Mexico of daily deaths is in fourth place worldwide, very close to India, but well below the US and Brazil, the Latin American nation that heads this global list.

Our World in Data reported that in terms of the daily average of confirmed new cases, Mexico is also in fourth place globally, only behind South Africa, the US and Brazil, the most affected by the pandemic worldwide.


However, Hugo López-Gatell Ramírez, head of the federal Undersecretariat for Prevention and Health Promotion, has repeatedly reiterated that it is not fair, nor methodologically correct, to compare Mexico with other countries.


“Some media and people make numerical comparisons between countries, we remind you that this is an error of conception, of understanding. It is a methodological error because the number of people affected or deceased is always proportional to the size of the population, "she would say.

 COUNTRIES WITH POPULIST GOVERNMENTS HAVE MORE DEATHS BY COVID


According to a dispatch from the American agency Associated Press (AP), “the countries that lead the statistics of deaths by COVID-19 worldwide are not the poorest nor the richest, not even the most densely populated. But they have one thing in common: unconventional and populist leaders. "
"Donald Trump in the United States, Boris Johnson in Great Britain and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, as well as Narendra Modi in India and Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico, came to power in democratic countries defying the old order, promising social aid to the masses and rejecting traditional institutions, "said the agency.


"But it turns out that when it comes to fighting a new disease like COVID-19, populists' disruptive policies are having poor results compared to countries with liberal democratic models like Germany, France or Iceland in Europe, and South Korea or Japan in Asia ”, refers the AP office.
It also states that the US, Brazil, Great Britain and Mexico "have leaders who have been skeptical of scientists and who initially downplayed the disease," nations that account for half of the 624,000 deaths from COVID-19 worldwide. world.


"In the US and Brazil, Trump and Bolsonaro have sometimes minimized the disease, advocated treatments of unproven efficacy and discussed and set aside scientists and health officials. Instead of posing and applying a consistent strategy against COVID-19 in their countries, it has often been state and local leaders who have led the response to the virus.


“Questioning consolidated facts is a characteristic of populist leaders. Another is that recommendations such as telling people to stay at home or wear a mask in public pose a risk of angering their followers (...) A third characteristic is to sow divisions that tend to complicate cooperation. And finally, a fourth characteristic is a leadership style that favors bombastic gestures and that are liked by the public, "AP said, later concluding:


“In Mexico, where 41 thousand people have died, López Obrador lobbied to revive the economy while contagion continued to rise. Several governors refused to follow the Federal Government's plans to reopen, "however," he continued to tour the country and bathe in crowds for weeks after the country confirmed his first case on February 28, instead of keeping his distance. , He showed people the scapular that, he said, kept him safe. "

DIFFERENCES WITH GOVERNORS FOR PANDEMIC MANAGEMENT

"I told the President yesterday. I can no longer with (López) Gatell. He has figures that I do not know where he is getting from, ”said the governor of Tabasco, Adán Augusto López Hernández, in an informal conversation he had with the Secretary of State Health, Silvia Roldán Fernández, on Friday, July 17, regarding the discrepancy in the occupation of general beds reported by said entity and the Federation, since López-Gatell Ramírez indicated that Tabasco was the federative entity with the highest general hospital occupancy in Mexico.


The same day, at the evening press conference, the general director of Epidemiology of the federal Health Secretariat, José Luis Alomía Zegarra, reported that Tabasco was approaching "a dangerous place of occupation" with 85% hospital occupancy.


Another who expressed his annoyance regarding the work of López-Gatell Ramírez, is the Tapatío president Enrique Alfaro Ramírez, given that according to the member of Movimiento Ciudadano, the federal official modified the criteria of the traffic light of epidemiological risk and placed Jalisco in red.


“There are things that are hopeless @HLGatell is still on his political agenda. Their whims have already cost Mexico many lives. He does not understand that the pandemic is a serious matter. We take a step forward and he is in charge of spoiling again , Alfaro Ramírez wrote on July 17 on his Twitter account.


“Without saying water goes, it changes the criteria to make the traffic light again and we turn it red because it feels like it. We are not going to hook up with it anymore. History will put each one in his place (...) There are those in the federal cabinet who seek to continue beating and betting on the confrontation. But we are going to fulfill what we are left with. In Jalisco the word pawned is worth, ” said Alfaro hours after the visit of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to that entity."


~~~~~

 Still, AMLO dismisses the wearing of masks, remarking that masks have not been scientifically proven to prevent the spread of COVID.  

  
 ~  From Zeta:

Salud Federal le ha Dicho Que No Necesita Cubrebocas; No Esta Demonstrado Cientificamente, dice AMLO [VIDEO] 
por. Carlos Alvarez...07/24/20 


~~~~~


Adding to the chaos or OOPS LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS:

 ~ From Proceso:

Detectan Un "Exceso" de 71 Mil 315 Muertes Durante la Epidemia 
por, Juan Carlos Cruz Vargas  - 07/25/20

"MEXICO CITY (process.com.mx) .– Mexico presented an excess mortality of 55%, equivalent to 71 thousand 315 deaths, from week 12 to 26 of this year by covid-19, revealed the director general of the National Center for Preventive Programs and Disease Control, Ruy López Ridaura.


In other words, in 20 states included in the new Excess Mortality System, a total of 130 thousand 763 deaths were expected, however, the coronavirus pandemic brought the death toll to 202 thousand 77, so the excess deaths corresponds to 71 thousand 315 cases.


Data from the other 12 states were not included due to inconsistencies.

This system is based on a mathematical calculation that measures the difference between the deaths observed and the deaths in the normal season measured over the median of the previous five years.
Thus, the classification associated directly or indirectly with covid-19, allows estimating the changes in deaths caused by covid-19 in different regions and jurisdictions.


According to Jean Marc Gabastu, advisor to the Pan American Health Organization, the system “improves and complements the traditional death registration systems of the other surveillance systems; it allows a punctual or systematic analysis for the surveillance of excess mortality in the face of any health risk such as infectious, non-infectious events, disasters and conflicts; helps quantify and classify additional deaths associated with covid-19. ”


The measurement includes the following 20 states: Aguascalientes, Baja California, Baja California Sur, Campeche, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Colima, Mexico City, Guanajuato, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Morelos, Nuevo León, Puebla, Querétaro, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosí, Sonora, Veracruz, and Zacatecas.


The excess mortality in men so far in the pandemic is greater than in women and amounts to 66% and in absolute terms, 48,444 deaths. In the case of women, the rate was 41%, equivalent to 23,643 cases.
By age groups, those between 20 and 44 years old, excess mortality was 43% with 7,786 deaths; in the case of those in the range of 45 to 64 years, it rises to 97% with 31,247 deaths; while for Mexicans aged 65 and over, the rate is 45% with a total of 32,320 cases."

Wow.

~~~~~ 

The Governor vs. Zeta

So, if these new numbers are validated, then of course all the numbers including Tijuana's will need to be re-evaluated. At that point, we will not be talking hundreds of unaccounted for deaths due to COVID, it will look more like thousands and thousands, for Tijuana alone. Or, maybe this latest report will just simply be buried, lost, gone forever.  The duel between Governor Bonilla and Zeta didn't just start a couple of weeks ago, to me at least it has intensified since the get go.

The shocker of a worldwide Pandemic which was completely unprepared for - both here and in the USA, the crush of money oriented capitalistic & pure greedy Politics and the absolute power of  the Corporate Demons in both countries to keep the wheels of the economy from not  grinding to a complete halt and causing violent social unrest, the  abject dismissal of the finality and seriousness of the situation, the inability to convince populations in both countries to mobilize, pay attention, stay home.  Both countries saw scores, millions of people who simply would not adhere to the basic health principles to arrest the virus dead in it's tracks.  Quite simply in both countries  these non compliant citizens did not believe or trust their governments most expert scientists or their governments downplayed the virus to the radical extent that the virus was described as "... just a little flu" minimalizing the deadliness with con men assurances - they did believe them  (i.e. Trump) as the rest of us groaned in disbelief and now in the USA, we are just about back at square one, maybe even worse. It is a tragedy to watch as Mexico heads in the same horrible direction.

Let's not go back any further, we don't need anymore outrageous draculian  stress.  You may not like me after I say this, but I don't believe either Governor Bonilla or Zeta are liars, as they both accuse each other of being.  These are bright people, we need them to shake on it  and lead the way out of this nightmare. Look at all of the Republican Governors and Senators who have turned and finally are telling Trump to drop dead. Although this alone will never completely redeem them for taking orders from the top dog or being good soldiers, at least their souls are just a little bit less untarnished, which is a start. That takes courage. It takes courage to say, "I'm sorry, I made a mistake, I was wrong."  And move on. That, I might add, takes true leadership.

~~~~~

UPDATE/EDIT: 07/28/20


We just came home, Mike gets more x=rays next week, this has been so crazy. He is doing much better, although I have to keep telling him to slow down.

 Boy, was I read the riot act by some neighbors who told me I was completely off base by my interpretaion  of the Zeta vs. The Governor fiasco over the unaccounted for deaths due to COVID here in Tijuana.  " You cannot shake up this Government...no one in his Party is going to turn on AMLO and do their own thing, that is not how it works here...look what happened to Zapata and  Pancho Villa...etc, etc." " It's a mafia, this is how it works,
etc...etc ". These were Mexican nationals.  Although they did tell me it was a good try.  

Sorry.  Mea culpa, jeez.

Okay then, at this very moment Trump is painting a very rosy picture of COVID conditions in the USA (which we all know is a lie) in addition to further insulting Dr. Fauci in his latest tweet, telling the world that Dr. Fauci mislead the American people on COVID - which we all know is absolute bullshit. He is also calling for states to re-open despite the off the chart numbers of infections and the dire straits the USA is in. All part of his get me re-elected campaign.

How about this?  Maybe at the Trump-AMLO get together, COVID was discussed...and the plan was made to criticize the scientific experts to the max (including mask wearing) and shut downs ?  Especially shut downs...I mean fuck it - even if you are in a semi-rojo state, get these places opened up, who cares about the peasants, we'll just dig more graves. (would make a good movie) Maybe this was an agreement made months ago, with the latest Trump-AMLO meet up at the White House to stand firm on their plan - and maybe, if the subject that there were hundreds of deaths due to COVID just in one Municipality (but in reality across the country) not having been accounted for, Trump just
shrugged and said,'...who cares? Don't worry about it.'  Oh well, birds of a feather flock together.

Right...dig more graves and make more money.  We saw this happen at the beginning of the Pandemic here, when Mexican union officials explained making the decisions to keep some of the Maqs open was completely not only out of their hands, but out of local and national politico hands .  The word they told us came down from the White House, the US Government to keep the assembly lines going.  And, we all know the influence the corporates have over the US government - nearly complete.

Who is the real culprit then ? Yep, Donald Trump & his Corporate Buddies.

Next time around (there probably won't be due to my humiliation), I'll stick to cooking classes or something. (; 

They also said..."...it's okay (with pathetic shrugs), she's just a gringa ...(eyes rolling as in unfortunately another hopeless case)."

I thought this worked better than Cantiflas.... stay safe you guys.


Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Fauci Report: No Es Bueno, Pero Es La Verdad - Local COVID-19 & Drug War Stats

Paris finally fell asleep, tomorrow will be her last day on the pain medication which has jolted her system and personality into reverse (well, it is an opioid).  The good news is that she did not have to wear the comfy collar and she has not scratched or bitten at her stitches. Still, nothing is normal as ya'll well know.
 
I'm going to link and paste the New York Times report on Dr. Fauci's testimony today, the link includes video of his remarks, then move forward to some of our stats - but not the complete histories on the crime or the virus locally - hopefully will return to that a bit later because there are terrific reports from Zeta on the front line medical responders and investigative exposes of the violent crime in our region.

Meanwhile, gosh you know what, I like the New York Times and I feel they are entirely ethical unlike
some down here  who do not:"El New York Times es un Periodico Famoso, Pero Con Poca Etica", Afirma AMLO".

Didn't Trump say basically the same thing more or less?   Still, this is the guy who would not allow reporters from Zeta access to AMLO events...two events actually:

 ~ From La Silla Rota :

Niegan Acceso a Periodistas del Semanario Zeta En Evento de AMLO
Por, Eduardo Rubio 


As far as Azam Ahmed and his ethics, you can read all of his material here:

Azam Ahmed

Never forget The Pentagon Papers !  (;

~~~~

 ~ From MSN/The New York Times  - click title link for videos

At Senate Hearing, Government Experts Paint Bleak Picture Of the Pandemic
by, Sheryl Gay Stolberg


"WASHINGTON — Two of the federal government’s top health officials painted a grim picture of the months ahead on Tuesday, warning a Senate panel that the coronavirus pandemic was far from contained, just a day after President Trump declared that “we have met the moment and we have prevailed.”

The officials — Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — predicted dire consequences if the nation reopened its economy too soon, noting that the United States still lacked critical testing capacity and the ability to trace the contacts of those infected.

“If we do not respond in an adequate way when the fall comes, given that it is without a doubt that there will be infections that will be in the community, then we run the risk of having a resurgence,” said Dr. Fauci, the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, who is at the forefront of efforts to find a coronavirus vaccine.

If states reopen their economies too soon, he warned, “there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control,” which could result not only in “some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery.”

Dr. Fauci’s remarks, during a high-profile — and partly virtual — hearing before the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, along with those of Dr. Redfield, made clear that the nation had not yet prevailed.

They appeared to rattle the markets, driving the S&P 500 down as investors weighed the potential of a second wave of infections against Mr. Trump’s promises that the economy would bounce back once stay-at-home restrictions were lifted. Worrisome reports of spikes in infections in countries like China, South Korea and Germany, where lockdowns had been lifted, seemed to confirm the American officials’ fears.

Here in Washington, Dr. Fauci and Dr. Redfield, who have been barred by the White House from appearing before the Democratic-controlled House, drew a very different picture of the state of the pandemic than the president, who has cheered for a swift reopening, championed protesters demanding an end to the quarantine and predicted the beginning of a “transition to greatness.”

Dr. Fauci told senators that coronavirus therapeutics and a vaccine would almost certainly not be ready in time for the new school year, that outbreaks in other parts of the world would surely reach the United States and that humility in the face of an unpredictable killer meant erring on the side of caution, even with children, who have fared well but have recently shown new vulnerabilities.

Dr. Redfield pleaded with senators to build up the nation’s public health infrastructure, even as he acknowledged that the C.D.C. had not filled 30 jobs authorized by Congress last year to expand its capacity to track outbreaks, and had yet to put in place a “comprehensive surveillance” system to monitor outbreaks in nursing homes, which have been hard hit by the pandemic.

“We are not out of the woods yet,” he said, “but we are more prepared.”

The two were among four government doctors — the others were Dr. Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of food and drugs, and Adm. Brett P. Giroir, an assistant secretary for health — who testified remotely during the hearing. Senator Lamar Alexander, Republican of Tennessee, who like Dr. Fauci, Dr. Redfield and Dr. Hahn is in quarantine after being exposed to the coronavirus, presided as the committee’s chairman from his home in Maryville, Tenn.


The doctors’ downbeat assessments came as the death toll in the United States surpassed 81,000 — a figure that Senator Tim Kaine, Democrat of Virginia, noted was “45 times the rate of South Korea.” The hearing, titled “Covid-19: Safely Getting Back to Work and Back to School,” offered little concrete advice on how that would happen. It was the first chance lawmakers have had to publicly question the officials in Congress since Mr. Trump declared a national emergency two months ago — and to do so without Mr. Trump standing nearby.

Despite the gloomy predictions for the months ahead, the experts drew a somewhat more upbeat picture over the long term. Asked by Senator Mitt Romney, Republican of Utah, if the scientists would ultimately develop a vaccine, Dr. Fauci said: “It’s definitely not a long shot, Senator Romney. I would think that it’s more likely than not that we will.”


And Admiral Giroir assured Senator Bernie Sanders, independent of Vermont, that his office was determined to see to it that a vaccine “reaches all segments of society regardless of their ability to pay.”


Some Republicans sounded their own upbeat note. Mr. Alexander proclaimed testing in the United States “impressive” and “enough to begin going back to work.” Senator Mike Braun, Republican of Indiana, agreed, saying in an interview, “I have great optimism that we won’t backslide.”

But the sentiment was not universal. Mr. Romney drew an unfavorable comparison between South Korea, which conducted 140,000 tests by March 6 and has had 258 deaths from Covid-19, and the United States, which had conducted about 2,000 tests by March 6.

“I find our testing record is nothing to celebrate,” Mr. Romney said.

For Dr. Redfield, who has largely been sidelined by Mr. Trump — at least in the administration’s public response — the hearing was a rare opportunity to speak directly to Americans, though he often seemed at pains not to showcase any disagreements with the president. Dr. Fauci, one of the most visible federal health officials and voices in the pandemic, has had less frequent appearances at the podium the past two weeks, since Mr. Trump abandoned his daily coronavirus task force briefings. Often the subject of speculation that the president will fire him, Dr. Fauci reassured senators that their relationship was intact.

“There is certainly not a confrontational relationship between me and the president,” he said, adding that when he gives Mr. Trump advice, “he hears that, he respects it, he gets opinions from a variety of other people.”

The hearing scene was extraordinary. The wood-paneled hearing room, in the Dirksen Senate Office Building, was set up with tables along all four walls, so senators — some of whom were wearing masks that they removed while speaking — could sit a reasonable distance apart.

 Those who participated virtually gave viewers a peek into their private lives. Senator Patty Murray of Washington, the top Democrat on the panel, appeared beside a pine cabinet in her home office. Mr. Alexander’s dog, a Cavalier King Charles spaniel named Rufus, slept in the background as he spoke.

The mood was at times tense. Mr. Alexander put Democrats on notice not to engage in “finger pointing” and insisted that “even the experts underestimated Covid-19.” Ms. Murray followed that by calling Mr. Trump’s response “a disaster,” adding: “The president isn’t telling the truth. We must, and our witnesses must.”

Across the Capitol, House Democrats on Tuesday unveiled a $3 trillion economic stimulus measure to respond to the pandemic, including $1 trillion in aid to state, local and tribal governments, another round of $1,200 direct payments to American families, and more money for jobless aid and food assistance.

Ms. Murray used her time to make a pitch for the package, saying Republicans — who have already joined with Democrats in approving nearly $3 trillion in government aid — had not done enough.

“What good is a bridge that only gets you to the middle of the river?” she asked.

There were flash points between the witnesses and the senators, as well. In one sharp exchange, Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, pressed his belief that children needed to return to school and told Dr. Fauci that his voice was not the only one senators would listen to.

“I think we ought to have a little bit of humility in our belief that we know what’s best for the economy,” Mr. Paul said. “And as much as I respect you, Dr. Fauci, I don’t think you’re the end-all. I don’t think you’re the one person who gets to make a decision.”

Dr. Fauci replied, “We should be humble about what we don’t know.” But, he continued, “we really better be very careful, particularly when it comes to children,” because new research is showing that they may not be “completely immune to the deleterious effects” of Covid-19.

The White House has put out guidelines for states to follow, called “Opening Up America Again,” in planning how to reopen businesses and get people back to work and school. The plan recommends, among other things, that before reopening, states should have a “downward trajectory of positive tests” or a “downward trajectory of documented cases” of the coronavirus over two weeks, while conducting robust contact tracing and “sentinel surveillance” testing of asymptomatic people in vulnerable populations, like nursing homes.

But the guidelines are not mandatory, and many states are reopening without adhering to them, seeking to ease the pain as millions of working people and small-business owners are facing economic ruin while sheltering at home.

Senator Christopher S. Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, complained on Tuesday that Dr. Fauci and the other witnesses were “trying to have it both ways” by saying that states should not reopen too early while giving governors guidance that was “criminally vague.”

 The C.D.C. has been working on a more specific plan that has been held up by the White House. Mr. Murphy demanded to know when it would be released — especially given that states were reopening.

“Is it this week? Is it next week?” the senator asked. Dr. Redfield replied that the guidance would be on the C.D.C.’s website “soon,” after being reviewed by Mr. Trump’s coronavirus task force.

“Soon isn’t terribly helpful,” Mr. Murphy shot back."


 Then there is this report from AP:

 ~ From MSN/AP:

As Trump Urges Reopening, Thousands Getting Sick On the Job 
by, David Crary

~~~~~

Down this aways, remember what Presidente AMLO said back on May the 4th:

 ~ From El Politologo:

El 17 de Mayo Vamos a Regreso a la Normalidad: AMLO 

"This morning, during the Executive's press conference with the representatives of the media, the president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador , explained that in some places it will " return to normal " next Sunday, May 17, after the days of isolation derived from the Covid 19 pandemic.

I tell you: there is little left.

The president pointed out that the indications of the experts, "the scientists," who have helped the Federal Government to contain the pandemic, must continue.
"Almost there. The light is already visible at the end of the tunnel. I think it will be nothing more this month . That is my forecast.
Even in some places, we will return to normal, little by little, carefully, with sanitary measures, from the 17th .
And, on June 1st, we want to do it nationwide. Carefully. So there is certainty."

May 17th is four days away.

~~~~~

~ Local Covid-19 stats:

A note that in Baja California 70 Maquiladoras reopen..." 40,000 workers restarted work this week and 30% more companies are expected to re-open. From Luis Manuel Hernandez, Presidente de Index Zona Costa, " we have seen high pressure from the United States Manufacturing Association sending letters to the [Mexican] Federal Government." 

***Note:  Inotherwords, United States Big Business Pressured Mexico To Re-Open The Maqs. Well, you guys remember what JFK called U.S. Big Business?  C'mon I know you remember...he called them "S.O.B's."


Baja California: 2,524 Infections and 433 Deaths :

 Por COVID-19 se Preve Dificil Regresa a Clases Presenciales en BC; Hay Mas de 2 Mil 500 Contagios
Por, Uriel Saucedo 

~~~~~

Nation wide:  38,324 Infections and 3,926 Deaths :

Suman 3 Mil 926 Defunciones de COVID-19 en Mexico 


~~~~~

Local Drug War stats:

YTD Tijuana = 726 Dead

YTD Baja California = 985 Dead

Tres cadaveres Calcinados en Tijuana
Por, Gerado Andrade 


"According to information obtained by ZETA, around 16:05 hours on Tuesday, May 12, residents of the Rancho Las Flores neighborhood, in Tijuana, reported to the emergency number 911, that in an unpopulated area, attached to a hill, They had found three people lifeless, handcuffed and charred.

The first agents to arrive at the crime scene confirmed that there were charred human beings, so elements of the Fire Department attended, although the fire had already been extinguished by consuming the bodies.

After the fire was completely put down, the authorities were able to see three totally burned corpses and the case was taken by the State Investigation Agency, which on Tuesday night, was still looking for clues to determine if there were more victims among the ashes found in the place.

Neighbors who were near the macabre scene, informed ZETA that in that area of ​​the city located in the Playas delegation, there is a lot of drug sales, and homicides are unfortunately common.

However, they pointed out that they had never witnessed something so "gloomy", the bodies were completely charred and the smell could be perceived from several kilometers away.
 
"I had never seen anything like this, because poor people, who know who they were, were there, there, (he pointed to the direction where the bodies were found) I find it very sad because this (homicides) is getting worse," said one neighbor of the Rancho Las Flores neighborhood.

24 hours before the discovery of the burned bodies, eleven people had been killed in different parts of the city of Tijuana, one of those executions was in the same delegation of Playas, in the courtyard of a house located on Morelia street in the neighborhood. Artesanal, a man identified by the name of Sergio was shot, the experts located 10 scene casings in the scene.

Tijuana has a total of 726 victims of intentional homicides so far in 2020, according to the State Attorney General's Office (FGE), a high percentage of the 985 murders committed in the same period, in Baja California."

~~~~~


Take care everyone.